盤和林:富士康美國建廠背後
三星電子日前宣布,將投資3.8億美元在美國南卡羅來納州(South Carolina)建造一座家電制造工廠。此外,富士康、富士康子公司夏普和臺積電等均考慮在美國建廠。上周,富士康董事長郭臺銘曾表示,富士康將於8月初公布在美國的投資計劃。郭臺銘還稱,未來5年富士康在美國投資額預計將超過100億美元。
重振制造業是特朗普的重要經濟政策之一,他采取的是“胡蘿蔔加大棒”的策略,“威脅”稱企圖離開美國、解雇美國員工、在他國建廠卻想把產品售往美國的企業,都將征收高達35%的懲罰性稅收;同時承諾在美國建廠、投資的企業提供稅收優惠政策。之後,福特、豐田、本田、蘋果等相繼宣布在美國建廠。富士康美國建廠,更是引發了制造業在中美兩大市場中取舍的猜想。
我們不禁要問,富士康們去美國建廠背後的制造產業流動規律是什麽?難道制造產業能沿著總統特朗普的“權杖”逆流?只有厘清問題的實質,才能確定我國制造業的應對策略,光是喊“不要讓富士康跑了”等口號是無濟於事的。
咋一看,一些市場主要在美國的跨國公司受到特朗普的“威脅”後,紛紛表態要在美國投資建廠,但應付式表態居多。即便富士康,也是因為液晶屏面板“運輸成本高”才在美國建廠的,“富士康跑了”或是杞人憂天,富士康廣州砸610億元最先進顯示器項目今年初已經動工。另據《華盛頓郵報》3月29日報道,特朗普威脅難阻企業外遷腳步。
現代經濟中,產業聚集在制造業中占據越來越重要的地位,甚至比資源優勢
這表明,目前宣布美國建廠的公司本質上是跨國公司多國生產的產物,總統的“權杖”並不能改變制造產業聚集和流動的本質規律。那麽,什麽原因使得某一工業從一個區域遷移至另一個區域呢?
具體來說,產業聚集和遷移要分成三個層面來理解:第一個層面是運輸成本和規模經濟、勞動力池共享、專業化投入等都是“基本因素”;第二個層面是市場因素如市場需求、產品差異性、市場關聯、貿易成本等;第三個層面是知識溢出效益。這些因素遠比總統“權杖”更具魔力,才是真正決定制造業聚集和遷移的決定性因素。體檢代檢
從目前來看,美國盡管降低稅收的幅度不小,但人工等綜合成本依然遠遠高於中國。以iphone為例,在美國組裝和美國制造成本要高出100多美元。制造業等生產部門將越來越多離開中心進入外圍地區,這是現代經濟增長一個根本性趨勢,富士康等制造業不太可能因為總統的“權杖”大規模逆流到美國,其主要生產部門仍然會留在中國、印度等國家。
富士康美國建廠是基於“運輸成本”等給特朗普一個“順水人情”,但背後蘊藏其布局“知識溢出”企業戰略,也折射出當前制造業的產業聚集因素的權重正在發生深刻變化:隨著產業聚集的程度的提高,第二層次“市場因素”超過了勞動力成本、運輸成本等“基本因素”,之後知識溢出效益在“新制造”(智能制造等高科技產業聚集)中的地位更為最重要。
近年來,富士康在外人的印象中還是“代工廠”,但其核心業務已經在悄然改變,在納米科技、雲端運算服務等高科技領域均取得豐碩成果。美國建廠或是富士康布局“知識溢出效益”的重要一環。
當前我國制造業尚在第一個層面競爭,高度依賴勞動力成本的代工企業等初級制造業,部分企業從我國轉移到更低的東南亞國家,這也是一個不可改變的趨勢。真正要想成為世界制造業聚集中心,沒有知識和技術的支撐是不可能的。在這個意義上來講,並不是總統的“權杖”(懲罰和“減稅”)帶走了我國制造企業,我們必須從產業聚集的更高層次如市場因素、“知識溢出”來吸引、留住制造企業,這才是我們“不要讓富士康跑了”的正確應對策略。
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