We see successful writers. We do not see the tons of rejected manuscripts because these writers have never been published. We see film stars. We don’t consider the number of actors who have never passed an audition but would have done very well had they had that lucky break in life.

Numerous studies of successful founders and businesses trying to figure out the skills required for their success follow similar methodology. They take a population of successful people and study their attributes. They look at what all of them have in common: courage, risk taking attitude, optimism, and so on, and infer that these traits help you become successful.

Funny thing is, the graveyard of failures will also be full of people who share similar traits: courage, risk taking, optimism, yada yada. There may be some differences in skills, but what truly separates the two is for the most part a single factor: luck. Plain and simple luck.

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