1. 程式人生 > >用累積分佈函式(CDF)計算期望

用累積分佈函式(CDF)計算期望

一般計算期望的方法為:
E ( x ) = x x

P ( x ) E(x) = \sum_x xP(x) 或者
E (
x ) = x P ( x ) d
x E(x) = \int xP(x)dx


但如果我們已知 非負 隨機變數的累積分佈函式(CDF)為 F ( x ) F(x) 時,可以用如下方式計算:
E ( x ) = 0 1 F ( x ) d x E(x) = \int_0^\infty 1-F(x)dx
或者對於取值為離散自然數的隨機變數
E ( x ) = n = 0 P r ( x n ) E(x) = \sum_{n=0}^\infty Pr(x\geq n)


證明1:
E ( x ) = 0 y P ( y ) d y = 0 0 y P ( y ) d x d y = 0 x P ( y ) d y d x = 0 1 F ( x ) d x E(x) = \int_0^{\infty} yP(y)dy = \int_0^{\infty} \int_0^yP(y)dxdy \\= \int_0^{\infty} \int_x^{\infty}P(y)dydx = \int_0^{\infty} 1-F(x)dx
證明2:
E ( x ) = k = 0 k P r ( x = k ) = k = 0 n = 0 k P r ( x = k ) = n = 0 k = n P r ( x = k ) = n = 0 P r ( x n ) E(x) = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} kPr(x=k) = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\sum_{n=0}^{k} Pr(x=k) \\=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \sum_{k=n}^{\infty}Pr(x=k) = \sum_{n=0}^\infty Pr(x\geq n)