Getting a handle on

醜聞處理

Corporate crises drive the media and politicians wild.But do they damage shareholder value?

企業危機令媒體和政客瘋狂，但 它們會損害股東價值嗎？

A POPULAR riff doing the rounds in tech circles is that, if data are the new oil, then Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica fiasco(慘敗) is the equivalent of Deepwater Horizon

科技業界廣為流傳的一個說法是，假如數據是新的“石油”，那麽Facebook在“劍橋分析”那兒栽的大跟頭就相當於當年的墨西哥灣漏油事件。名為“深水地平線”的石油鉆探平臺在2010年4月爆炸，泄露的厚厚一層“毒油”

Deepwater Horizon

英國石油漏油事故，是2010年4月20日發生的一起墨西哥灣外海油汙外漏事件。

起因是英國石油公司所屬一個名為“深水地平線”（DeepwaterHorizon）的外海鉆油平臺故障並爆炸，導致了此次漏油事故。爆炸同時導致了11名工作人員死亡及17人受傷。

據估計每天平均有12,000到100,000桶原油漏到墨西哥灣，導致至少2,500平方公裏的海水被石油覆蓋著。專家們擔心此次漏油會導致一場環境災難影響多種生物。此次漏油還影響了當地的漁業和旅遊業。

Yet just how damaging are“Deepwater”incident

然而隨著時間推移，這類“深水”事件對企業及其股東的損害究竟有多大？也許，在最幵始的媒體炮轟、高管謙卑道歉、對手幸災樂禍、政客借題發揮過後，事件的影響就逐漸消弭了。

為回答這個問題，本專欄研究了自2010年以來八宗最受矚目的企業危機，包括優步和富國銀行的醜聞。證據表明，這些事件嚴重影響了企業的財務健康。與同行相比，危機發生後這些公司的中位數市值損失為30%。Facebook要當心了。

When a scandal first breaks, executives at the top of a firm and securities analysts outside it are often myopic((近視的,引申為目光短淺), viewing it as a public-relations blip(n.變故；暫時性問題；（電子裝置發出的）短促尖聲v.發信號) that will not alter a firm’s operations(運營) or its competitive position. In the case of Facebook, 44 of the 48 Wall Street analysts who cover it still rate it a "buy”,according to Bloomberg. Many have downplayed(v.對…輕描淡寫；低估；低調處理) the scandal, even though Facebook s shares have dropped by 18% since the news broke（新聞曝光）on March 17th.

Of course, speculators and the media do frequently overreact to bad news. Credit Suisse, a bank, analysed 5,400 instances of American firms’ shares dropping by over 10% in one day, between 1990 and 2014. On average the shares regained two-thirds of the lost value within the subsequent 90 days. But big corporate scandals are in a different league. They capture the public imagination and lead to heat from politicians and regulators. Infrequent and idiosyncratic(特質的；特殊的), they defy easy analysis.

醜聞爆發之初，公司高管和外部證券分析師們往往目光短淺，覺得這只是個公關小插曲，不會影響公司的運營或競爭地位。據彭博拫道，針對Facebook事件，48名華爾街分析師中仍有44人將其評級定為“買入”。許多人“此醜聞不以為意，盡管自3月 1 日消息曝光以來，Facebook的股價已跌去18%。當然，投機者和媒體往往對壞消息反應過度。瑞信銀行分析了1990年至2014年期間美國企業5400次股價在一天內下跌超過10%的情況。平均來說，這些企業在之後的90天內恢復了三分之二的損失價值。但大公司醜聞卻另當別論。它們備受公眾揣測，引來政客和監管機構關註。這類事件相對少見又特殊，分析起來頗具難度。

Consider two infamies(聲名狼藉；惡名；惡名昭彰) from the 1980s. In 1982 Johnson & Johnson had to withdraw(召回) 31m bottles of the painkiller({醫}止痛藥，斬妖除魔；獵魔者) Tylenol from shops after seven people were poisoned in Chicago.Seven years later, the Exxon Valdez, a ship run by Exxon, struck(“strike”的過去式和過去分詞,罷工、撞擊) a reef(礁) in Alaska’s Prince William Sound and spilled 11m gallons of oil. Yet both firms’share prices recovered within a few weeks, and today they remain among the world’s most valuable companies.

以上世紀80年代的兩宗醜聞為例。1982年，芝加哥有七人服用強生公司生產的止痛藥泰諾後中毒，強生公司不得不召回3100萬瓶泰諾。七年後，由埃克森美孚公司運營的埃克森-瓦爾迪茲號油輪(Exxon Valdez)在阿拉斯加(Alaska)的威廉王子灣（Prince William Sound）觸礁並溢出 1100萬加侖石油。然而，這兩家公司的股價在幾周內就收復失地，而且它們至今仍位列全球最高市值企業的行列。

美國強生(Johnson & Johnson)

Johnson & Johnson is an American multinational medical devices, pharmaceutical and consumer packaged goods manufacturing company founded in 1886. Its common stock is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the company is listed among the Fortune 500.

美國強生(Johnson & Johnson)成立於1886年，是世界上規模最大，產品多元化的醫療衛生保健品及消費者護理產品公司。強生公司是世界上最具綜合性、分布範圍最廣的衛生保健產品制造商、健康服務提供商。公司創建於1886年，產品暢銷於175個國家地區，生產及銷售產品涉及護理產品、醫藥產品和醫療器材及診斷產品市場等多個領域。強生作為一家國際性大型企業，在全球57個國家建立了230多家分公司，擁有11萬6千余名員工。旗下擁有強生嬰兒、露得清、可伶可俐、嬌爽、邦迪、達克寧、泰諾等眾多知名品牌。

埃克森美孚公司（Exxon Mobil Corporation），是世界最大的非政府石油天然氣生產商，總部設在美國德克薩斯州愛文市。在全球擁有生產設施和銷售產品，在六大洲從事石油天然氣勘探業務；在能源和石化領域的諸多方面位居行業領先地位。埃克森美孚見證了世界石油天然氣行業的發展，其歷史可以追溯到約翰·洛克菲勒於1882年創建的標準石油公司，至今已經跨越了125年的歷程。埃克森美孚通過其關聯公司在全球擁有8萬多名員工，其嚴謹的投資方針以及致力於開發和運用行業領先技術及追求完善的運營管理，使之在全球位居行業領先地位。此外，它是全球第一家市值超過4000億美元的公司。2016年7月20日，《財富》世界500強排行榜，埃克森美孚公司名列第六名；2017年6月7日，2017年《財富》美國500強排行榜發布，埃克森美孚公司排名第4位；

Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, plenty has changed. Social media mean that news of scandals spreads faster than ever and often in an exaggerated fashion. But consolidation has muted competition in many industries and made firms bigger and more resilient（可迅速恢復的；有適應力的；有彈性的）. Western governments may be willing to protect or bail out(保釋(被告)；擺脫困境；紓困) big firms, not just banks, because they worry about job losses.

自2008年至2009年金融危機爆發以來，許多事情已經發生改變。社交媒體的盛行讓醜聞的傳播速度比以往任何時候都更快，且往往被添油加醋。但企業合並(consolidation)令許多行業的競爭減弱，公司規模更大，也更有復原力。西方政府因為擔心失業的問題，可能也願意為銀行之外的大公司提供保護或紓困措施。

The eight firms in the sample have all been seared(烙印，燒焦) by scandal. All were large before their calamity(災難), with a market value of at least $15bn. Their problems were different, but all led to a media scrum((橄欖球賽中雙方球員)爭球,敏捷軟件開發) and prompted politicians and regulators to intervene. In all but one case, the firm’s boss left as a result. The figures measure returns in dollars, including dividends (for Uber, reports of private market valuations are used).

本研究涉及的八家公司都受到醜聞拖累。在“災難爆發前，它們都是市值不低於150億美元的大企業。雖然問 =題各不相同，但都引來媒體爭相報道，促使政客和監管機構插手幹預。其中七家公司均以總裁辭職收場。相關數據以美元計算回報，包括股息〔有關優步的數據來自對私人市場估值的拫道）。

As well as BP, the infamous eight include another energy firm,Petrobras, a Brazilian giant at the centre of the "car- wash”corruption scandal that erupted in 2014.Two firms beginning with "V”are included for their antics（滑稽搞笑的動作；愚蠢的） in 2015: Volkswagen, which admitted fiddling emissions tests, and Valeant, a drugs firm accused of price gouging and publishing inaccurate accounts. Wells Fargo is included for a mis-selling scandal that blew up in 2016, as is Uber, where the wheels came off in 2017- The last two firms are Equifax, a credit bureau which last year said hackers had gained access to data on 143m clients, and United Airlines, which set new lows for airline conduct when it asked security staff to remove a passenger from an overbooked(超售) flight, who was injured in the process.

除了英國石油公司外，這八家蒙羞的公司中另外還有一家能源企業巴西的巨頭企業Petrobras，它在2014年的“洗車”貪腐醜聞中成為眾矢之的。兩家名字以字母V開頭的公司因為2015年爆出的不當行徑位列其中：大眾汽車和瓦倫特制藥。前者承認排放測試造假，後者被指控哄擡藥價和發布虛假財務信息。富國銀行則是在2016年被爆出違規銷售的醜聞。優步也因違規操作在2017年遭遇滑鐵盧。剩下的兩家公司是征信公司叫Equifax和美國聯合航空公司(United Airlines 美聯航)，前者在去年披露自己的1.43億客戶資料被黑客竊取，後者則因超售機票並動用安保人員把一位乘客強行拖下飛機致其受傷，刷新了航空業操守下限。危機襲來後，所有這些公司的股價均出現絕對下跌。

Volkswagen(德語) 大眾牌汽車(西德生產的一種廉價小型汽車)

上汽大眾成立於1985年，是一家中德合資企業，也是國內大規模的現代化轎車生產基地之一。總部位於上海安亭，目前擁有朗逸、途觀、桑塔納、帕薩特和斯柯達品牌等系列產品。

After their crises struck all these firms suffered an absolute drop in their share prices. At the lowest point the median share price was down by 33%, although it took anywhere from two weeks to two years for different firms to reach this nadir(最糟糕的時刻；最低點). In most cases the companies have clawed back the absolute losses they suffered. However, what matters is their relative performance compared with a basket of industry peers over the same time period. On this basis the median firm is worth 30% less today than it would have been had the scandals not happened. For the eight the total forfeited value is a chunky(粗重的；厚實的；結實的) $300bn.

forfeit

n(權利,名譽,生命等的)喪失；沒收物；罰物遊戲

v.(因被罰而)喪失(所有權)；(因犯罪等而)失去(職位,生命等)

股價中位數最多下降了33%，但滑落的速度不一，跌至低點所經歷的時間從兩周至兩年不等。在大部分情況下，這些公司最後都能收復絕對損失。然而，重要的是在同一時期它們相對於同業公司的表現。以此來衡量，中位數公司的市值相比假設未發生醜聞的情況下要低30%。八家公司損失的總價值高達3000億美元

Fines and legal costs explain only a small part of this. A big scandal distracts management, leads to other kinds of painful regulatory scrutiny(審查) and, if a firm has a stretched balance-sheet, forces it to shrink. BP has spent years trimming its budgets while its longtime rival, Shell, stole a march(三月，急行軍) on it by buying BG, a gas firm. Wells Fargo faces a cap on its size imposed by the Federal Reserve. Equifax may become more heavily regulated. Uber has lost market share to a reinvigorated(再活化 使恢復生氣) domestic competitor, Lyft.

罰款和法律支出只造成了損失的一小部分。大型醜聞會分散管理層的註意力，招致其他方面的嚴厲監管審査。如果涉事公司的資產負債表情況不妙，醜聞還會迫使它收縮資產規模。英國石油公司多年來一直在削減預算，而其老對手殼牌趁機搶先收購了英國天然氣集團。富國銀行面臨美聯儲施加的資產規模限制。Equifax則可能受到更嚴格的監管。優步的市場份額有一部分已被再獲融資的國內競爭對手(domestic competitor,比如滴滴)奪取。

Shell 殼牌

1907年由荷蘭皇家石油公司（1890年成立）和英國殼牌運輸和貿易公司（1897年成立）聯合而成，分別占股60%和40%。殼牌公司總收入僅次於美國通用汽車公司和埃克森公司而居世界第三位。主要業務範圍為石油和天然氣的勘探開發、石油煉制、石油化工以及油品和化學品的貯運、銷售。1983年石油和天然氣產量占資本主義國家總產量的8%,生產石油化工產品，包括烯烴、芳烴、溶劑、洗滌劑、殺蟲劑、塑料、樹脂、合成橡膠等共3000余種，此外還生產和經營煤炭、金屬和少量核能。

Two firms out of the eight come out relatively well.For Petrobras, the explanation is that its share price had already sunk before the car-wash affair began in earnest, reflecting cost overruns that were an augury(預兆) of the epic(史詩、壯舉) mismanagement that the scandal revealed. Volkswagen is the only standout. It got hit by a huge $30bn bill for fines, product recalls and legal costs for“dieselgate”, but reacted to its crisis by putting in place an efficiency drive and a big bet on new car models. Even so, it and the other six listed firms in the sample are valued on low multiples of profits compared with their peers, suggesting that investors remain nervous.

八家公司中有兩家的情況相對較好。巴西石油在洗車事件被炒得沸沸揚揚之前，已經因為成本超支的問題（預示了後來醜聞揭露出的嚴重管理不善）而導致股價下跌。大眾汽車在這些公司中一枝獨秀。這家公司因“柴油門”上繳的罰金加上產品召回及法律費用，損失高達300億美元，但通過實施效率驅動方案，並大力研發新車型，順利渡過了危機。即便如此，大眾與其他六家上市公司的利潤乘數(PE之類的指標)也還是低於同行水平，表明投資者仍放不下心。

Messing up, then fessing up

知恥近乎勇

Messing up

na.陷入困境；弄糟(計劃等)；粗暴處理

The aftermath(創傷) of a scandal is unpredictable. In Facebook’s case the absence of established laws and regulations covering social media make it even harder than normal to predict how harsh the backlash will be. Its biggest advantage is its strong balance-sheet, which has $42bn of net cash. Its weakness is a management team that seems keen to downplay the severity of what has just happened. Recent experience suggests that is a mistake.

一樁醜聞的後果是不可預測的。對於此次Facebook泄密事件，由於有關社交媒體的法律法規並不完備，要預測後果的嚴重性比一般情況還要更難。Facebook的最大優勢是它那強大的資產負債表，其中凈現金達420億美元(由於紮克伯格的影響力，代理問題是否會小點？)。它的弱點是管理團隊似乎對事件的嚴重性一昧輕描淡寫。最近的經驗表明這是錯誤之舉。

Getting a handle on