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TEXT 67
Danger zone
危險地帶（陳繼龍編譯）
Oct 5th 2006
From The Economist print edition
It began moderately, but has risen too far, too fast and now threatens jobs
（1）SO FIRMLY entrenched in the political economy has the minimum wage become that its latest increase, on October 1st, to £5.35 ($10.08) an hour, caused little stir.
由於最低工資已經逐步確立了在政治經濟學領域中的地位，因此今年10月1日最低工資再次上漲，變成每小時5.35英鎊（10.08美元）時，並沒有引起多大的轟動。不過1999年國家最低工資標準的引入卻是新工黨政府在經濟上最激進的政策之一。盡管起初最低工資標準僅涉及為數不多的行業，但設立一種統一的標準畢竟是第一次。
During the 1997 election campaign the Conservatives said that the policy would destroy jobs. Some economists calculated that hundreds of thousands of people might be put out of work. （2）These dire warnings proved way off the mark after the national minimum wage came into force seven years ago. The feared job losses did not materialise.
1997年大選期間，保守黨稱這一政策會損害就業。一些經濟學家估計，數十萬人可能因此失業。可自從7年前最低工資標準開始實行以來，事實證明這些警告純屬杞人憂天。（way off the mark=inaccurate 不正確）人們擔心的失業現象並沒有發生。
However, that benign acquisition 獲得；買進② had much to do with the cautious approach the government, advised by the Low Pay Commission, at first adopted. In April 1999 the main rate—for workers aged 22 or over—was set quite low, at £3.60 an hour. Eighteen months later, the rate edged up to £3.70. At this level it was worth only 36% of average hourly earnings for all employees. Furthermore, workers aged 18 to 21 had a separate, lower rate, which began at £3 in 1999 and was raised to £3.20 in October 2000.
不過，最終沒有發生不良後果，很大程度上要與政府在低工資委員會的提議下起初所采取的預防措施有關。1999年4月，針對22歲以上工人所制定的主要工資標準設定得相當低，僅為每小時3.60英鎊。18個月後，這一標準逐漸升至3.70英鎊。這一水平僅相當於所有雇員平均每小時工資的36％。此外，18至21歲的工人擁有獨立的標準，但比較低，1999年為3英鎊，2000年10月起升至3.20英鎊。
The modest starting point for the minimum wage meant that it affected relatively few workers. The commission initially thought that it would raise the pay of around 2m workers but in practice only about a million gained. This limited any possible loss of jobs.
最低工資的起點設定適度，就意味著它影響的工人相對較少。低工資委員會開始以為這一政策會提高大約200萬工人的工資，但實際上僅為100萬左右。這樣一來，失業的可能性就降低了。
（3）After the initial period of caution, however, the government got bolder. This month‘s increase pushed the main rate up by 6%, comfortably ahead of average earnings which went up by 4.4% in the past year. Since 1999 the minimum wage has risen by 49%, outstripping[1] average earnings which increased by 32% in the past seven years. As a result, it is now worth 41% of average hourly earnings.
然而，在經過初期的“摸著石頭過河”以後，政府的膽子開始大起來。本月最低標準的上漲使得主要標準增加了6％，大大超過了平均工資水平的提高幅度，後者在去年上升了4.4％。1999年以來，最低工資標準已經提高了49％，超過了平均工資水平的增長幅度，後者在過去7年裏增長了32％。因此，現在的最低工資水平相當於平均每小時工資水平的41％。
（4）This trajectory[2] contrasts sharply with what has happened in America. The federal minimum wage has stayed at $5.15 since September 1997. At this level, it is worth 27% of average hourly wages for all employees other than those working in agriculture or for the federal government—far stingier[3] than Britain‘s rate.
這一增長軌跡與美國的情況形成了鮮明的對比。自1997年9月以來，美國聯邦最低工資始終保持著5.15美元的水平，相當於所有雇員（除從事農業工作或在聯邦政府謀職的人外）平均每小時工資水平的27％，遠低於英國的標準。
The commission accepts that the period when the minimum wage rose faster than average earnings is over. The worry, however, is that it has already risen to a level that will hurt employment. The Confederation of British Industry said on September 24th that businesses in several parts of the economy, such as retailing, were struggling to cope with the minimum wage. A few days later the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) added that the latest increase would have “serious implications 牽連，暗示③” for firms. David Kern, who advises the BCC, says: “There is now a distinct risk that the minimum wage will have an adverse effect on jobs.”
低工資委員會承認，最低工資比平均工資增長快的時期已經結束了。但是，問題是它已經上漲到了一個即將危及就業的水平。9月24日英國工會說，最低工資標準已經讓經濟領域中好幾個行業如零售業有些招架不住了。數日後，英國商會又稱，最近一次最低工資標準的上漲可能會“嚴重殃及”各公司。英國商會顧問大衛·科恩說：“目前顯而易見的危險就是最低工資將對就業產生負面影響。”
Whether employment will necessarily take a big knock is uncertain. Mainstream 主流的_④ economic theory suggests that a minimum wage set too high will cost jobs. （5）However, the evidence from other countries has been quite mixed. Some studies find no impact on employment whereas others find the jobs do indeed disappear, especially among young people.
就業是否必將受到嚴重打擊現在尚無定論。主流經濟學理論認為，設定過高的最低工資標準是以損失就業機會為代價的。然而，來自其它國家的證據都莫衷一是。有的研究發現這對就業不會產生影響，而有的則發現人們尤其是年輕人會真的因此失業。
In a recent appraisal 評價，鑒定⑤ of employment policies in the world‘s developed economies, the OECD said that “a moderate minimum wage generally is not a problem”. Britain‘s experience in the first few years of the policy bears out[4] that judgment. （6）But more recent increases have pushed the rate up to a level where it may inflict damage.
經濟合作和發展組織（OECD）最近在一項對全球發達國家就業政策的評估報告中指出，“適度的最低工資標準通常不會引發任何問題。”就這一政策而言，英國最初幾年的實踐證實了這一論斷。不過，最近這幾次提高標準已經使其達到了一個可能引起危害的水平。
[QUIZ]
1. 根據上下文和英文釋義，補全單詞：
①introduction 引入_（n. the act of bringing something into use for the first time）
②acquisition 獲得；買進（n. the final result）
③implications 牽連，暗示_（n. a possible future effect or result of an action, event, decision）
④Mainstream 主流的（adj. accepted by or involving most people in a society）
⑤appraisal 評價，鑒定_（n. a statement or opinion judging the worth, value, or condition of something）
2. 英譯漢（將劃線部分英文翻譯成中文）：
[NOTES](LONGMAN)
1. outstrip v. to be greater in quantity than something else 超過，超越
2. trajectory n. 軌道，軌跡；某段時間內發生的事件（常引起某種特定的結果或達到特定目的）
3. stingy adj. 吝嗇的；不足的，太少的
4. bear out 證實
[KEY TO QUIZ]
1. ①introduction 引入
②acquisition 獲得；買進
③implications 牽連，暗示
④Mainstream 主流的
⑤appraisal 評價，鑒定
2.（見譯文，僅供參考，歡迎指正）
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