南樂縣
阿里巴巴集團董事局主席馬雲發表致股東的公開信表示：生意難做之時，正是阿里巴巴兌現“讓天下沒有難做的生意”的使命之時。，阿里巴巴(NYSE:BABA)今日釋出了截至2018年9月30日的2019財年第二季度財報(注：阿里巴巴財年與自然年不同步，從每年的4月1日開始，至第二年的3月31日結束)。

財報中，阿里巴巴下調了全年營收展望，將2019財年的收入指引區間調整為3750億元至3830億元，較原先的收入指引調整幅度為4%-6%。阿里巴巴表示：鑑於當前巨集觀經濟條件的不確定性，最近集團決定短期內不會變現隨著旗下中國零售平臺使用者及互動增加而遞增的廣告庫存，希望此舉可讓平臺上的中小企業獲益。



說實在，我們看到馬雲講話之後，阿里全面下調了自己對2019財年的營收預期，這個預期的下調，其實我們覺得不一定是馬雲本身說話的一個原因，而是對當前整個巨集觀經濟形勢的一個判斷。

我們看到在10月31號最後一天的國家的會議上面，國家已經明確了：當前經濟執行穩中有變，經濟下行壓力有所加大，部分企業經營困難較多，長期積累的風險隱患有所暴露。

當前經濟的執行這種穩中有變的格局，實際上才是阿里調降預期的一個最核心的問題，當前其實我們面對的困難還是比較多的，我們看到CCTV專門提出了現在是需要民眾跟國家共克時艱的一個時代，所以我們這個時候調整預期，對於整個市場來說也是非常必要的，阿里集團適時調整了自己的預期，實際上也是逐漸明確了當前存在的一些問題。



其次，我們能夠看到阿里集團的主要營收是通過電子商務來實現的，而當整體經濟執行出現一定的增速放緩的時候，最受到影響的就是電子商務以及所代表的消費市場，消費市場的放緩在某種程度上也就會導致了整體企業集團的收入水平的下降，所以這也是阿里調整營收預期的一個重要原因。

第三個點我們看到的是阿里集團已經連續多年實現了50%以上的高增長，這種高增長速度在大部分的網際網路機構和傳統實體經濟當中都是難以想象的，這種高增長特別是如此大基數的高增長，實際上是相當困難的，這個時候適時的調整這種預期，對於提升自己的內部管理水平，並且讓企業逐漸適應市場的發展趨勢，是有非常重要的意義。



馬雲作為深受中國傳統文化的一個人，他非常明確的知道什麼叫功成名遂身退，什麼叫急流勇退，只有這樣才能夠真正保證自己的一個企業長期可持續健康的發展，雖然阿里集團這個時候調整預期實在是一個非常順應當前情況的一個發展方式。。俅棺境講刳煉訟車誒裁詒車渦夏濤遺陡杖嬌泊掠未看安啃濫仁帳叢秤侔未燈儀傷急季傷刳鼐涎官喚諄兆安惶涯惱侔

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