MCM2017

A

2017 MCM Problem A: Managing The Zambezi River

The Kariba Dam on the Zambezi River is one of the larger dams in Africa. Its construction was controversial, and a 2015 report by the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa included a warning that the dam is in dire need of maintenance. A number of options are available to the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) that might address the situation. Three options in particular are of interest to ZRA:

(Option 1) Repairing the existing Kariba Dam,

(Option 2) Rebuilding the existing Kariba Dam, or

(Option 3) Removing the Kariba Dam and replacing it with a series of ten to twenty smaller dams along the Zambezi River.

There are two main requirements for this problem:

Requirement 1 ZRA management requires a brief assessment of the three options listed, with sufficient detail to provide an overview of potential costs and benefits associated with each option. This requirement should not exceed two pages in length, and must be provided in addition to your main report.

Requirement 2 Provide a detailed analysis of Option (3) - removing the Kariba Dam and replacing it with a series of ten to twenty smaller dams along the Zambezi river. This new system of dams should have the same overall water management capabilities as the existing Kariba Dam while providing the same or greater levels of protection and water management options for Lake Kariba that are in place with the existing dam. Your analysis must support a recommendation as to the number and placement of the new dams along the Zambezi River.

In your report for Requirement 2, you should include a strategy for modulating the water flow through your new multiple dam system that provides a reasonable balance between safety and costs. In addition to addressing known or predicted normal water cycles, your strategy should provide guidance to the ZRA managers that explains and justifies the actions that should be taken to properly handle emergency water flow situations (i.e. flooding and/or prolonged low water conditions). Your strategy should provide specific guidance for extreme water flows ranging from maximum expected discharges to minimum expected discharges. Finally, your recommended strategy should include information addressing any restrictions regarding the locations and lengths of time that different areas of the Zambezi River should be exposed to the most detrimental effects of the extreme conditions.

Translation：

Problem A：管理贊比西河

贊比西河上的卡里巴水壩是非洲較大的水壩之一。它的建設是有爭議的，南非風險管理研究所的2015年報告包括一個警告-大壩是急需維護。贊比西河管理局（ZRA）可提供若干選擇，以解決這一問題。 ZRA特別感興趣的有三個選項：

選項1 修復現有的Kariba水壩

選項2 重建現有的Kariba水壩

選項3 拆除Kariba水壩，並更換為沿贊比西河的一系列十到二十個較小的水壩。

這個問題有兩個主要要求：

要求1 ZRA管理要求對所列出的三個選項進行簡要評估，並提供足夠的詳細資訊，以提供與每個選項相關的潛在成本和收益的概述。此要求的長度不應超過兩頁，除了主要報告之外，還必須提供此頁面。

要求2對選項（3）進行詳細分析 - 刪除Kariba水壩，並用贊比西河沿岸一系列十至二十個較小的水壩替代。這個新的水壩系統應該與現有的Kariba水壩具有相同的整體水管理能力，同時為現有的水壩提供與卡里巴湖相同或更高水平的保護和水管理選擇。您的分析必須支援關於沿贊比西河新壩的數量和位置的建議。

在您的要求2報告中，您應該包括一個策略，用於調節通過您的新多壩系統的水流，從而在安全和成本之間提供合理的平衡。除了解決已知或預測的正常水迴圈，您的戰略應為ZRA經理提供指導，解釋和證明應當採取的行動，以正確處理應急水流情況（即洪水和/或長期低水位狀況）。您的策略應為從最大預期排放到最小預期排放的極端水流提供具體指導。最後，您的建議戰略應包括解決對贊比西河不同地區暴露於極端條件最有害影響的位置和時間長度的任何限制的資訊。

參考論文

個人思路 僅供參考

a warning that the dam is in dire need of maintenance
考慮到題目說明是需要maintenance，保養，那麼成本consideration 是一定的。
其實題目已經給了我們一些參考資訊，給出了三種可行的方案。我們要做的，就是評估，預測成本和收益的關係，那麼答案自然而出。
1. 構建Cost-benefit Prediction model 成本效益預測模型
2. 考慮 k-NN ，或者Random forest

關於 water management

參考文獻

大概的輸出類似下圖，需要做一定的研究與分析：